# Fear the Moon

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2849730
- Developer: Jonny's Games
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $6.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $129 to $194 per month (mid $162)
- Opportunity score: $307/month at x1.90 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 4.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $8.5k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 138 reviews (130 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 2.3 years
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 27 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $294 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $255 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $231 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $162 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (23 months)

59, 7, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 4, 2

## Estimated acquisition range

$3.9k to $7.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $1.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 87% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 100% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: english). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2849730
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.