# 灾厄黑龙与谎言公主

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2850190
- Developer: 莓夜工作室
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $4.8k to $7.2k per month (mid $6.0k)
- Opportunity score: $6.0k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 117.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $391.8k
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 3772 reviews (3655 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 71.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 7 months ago
- Last build shipped 7 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 5 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $10.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $9.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $8.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $6.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (19 months)

1796, 461, 251, 115, 124, 86, 114, 66, 55, 83, 59, 60, 98, 112, 85, 58, 36, 50, 86

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 9 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 19 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$37.2k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 99%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2850190
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.