# Fearbonding

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2871980
- Developer: Night Asobu
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $4.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $212 to $318 per month (mid $265)
- Opportunity score: $265/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 4.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $7.6k
- Review sentiment: 96% positive across 158 reviews (142 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 6.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 12 months ago
- Last build shipped 16 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $481 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $418 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $379 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $265 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (15 months)

27, 12, 9, 9, 16, 19, 4, 14, 5, 2, 12, 0, 9, 3, 12

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 15 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$627 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2871980
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.