# Lucius II

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 296830
- Developer: Shiver Games
- Released: 2015 · Genre: Action · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $788 to $1.2k per month (mid $985)
- Opportunity score: $2.1k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 123.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $663.7k
- Review sentiment: 62% positive across 2329 reviews (1901 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 7.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 7.8 years
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 4 tracked titles
- Last build shipped 10.8 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $985 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

12, 13, 12, 8, 12, 7, 7, 9, 8, 7, 8, 11, 6, 10, 8, 7, 12, 15, 8, 8, 3, 8, 7, 10

## Estimated acquisition range

$23.6k to $47.3k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $11.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Lucius II is a 2015 action-horror game where players assume the role of a demonic child navigating supernatural scenarios.

Lucius II has generated $664k lifetime on modest volume (123k units) and still earns $985/mo residual, placing it in the long tail of profitable indie horror. However, a 62% positive rating, sparse recent engagement (7 reviews/mo), and the developer's apparent dormancy suggest the title suffers from execution or community fit issues that plague even second-installment sequels. The game is worth cataloging for a horror-focused publisher seeking revival campaigns or IP consolidation, but acquisition requires realistic assessment of whether the core concept (Omen-style protagonist gameplay) can be repositioned or if the franchise is exhausted.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): 61% positive rating and player complaints about controls and comparison to the first game suggest the sequel failed to improve or iterate on its predecessor, limiting revival upside.
- Risk (other): Developer studio status is marked inactive; no major update or community engagement in 93+ months reduces likelihood of organic sales resurgence and complicates ongoing support post-acquisition.
- Risk (other): Velocity is erratic and trending toward single-digit monthly units; even at $985/mo residual, the cash flow is modest and may not justify licensing or revival investment.

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit the first Lucius title and any IP documentation to establish franchise ownership and assess whether the concept (demonic-child protagonist, dark humor) has unrealized potential under different creative direction.
2. Run a cohort analysis on the 123k lifetime buyers: segment by playtime, review polarity, and review text to identify whether a vocal subset (e.g., speedrunners, modders) could anchor a targeted revival campaign or DLC strategy.
3. Model a low-touch publishing play (light community engagement, modest bundle placements, single cosmetic or balance patch) against the $985/mo baseline to determine breakeven threshold before committing acquisition capital.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/296830
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.