# LockYourDoor

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3004140
- Developer: Penguin's Autumn
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Action · List price: $8.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $422 to $633 per month (mid $528)
- Opportunity score: $528/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 4.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $13.5k
- Review sentiment: 88% positive across 161 reviews (140 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 7.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 5 months ago
- Last build shipped 8 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $958 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $833 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $754 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $528 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (8 months)

73, 25, 7, 13, 14, 3, 2, 3

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 8 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$3.2k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 2%
- english: 30%
- koreana: 19%
- russian: 10%
- spanish: 2%
- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 30%
- brazilian: 3%
- french: 4%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3004140
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.