# Phantom of the Twilight

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3012130
- Developer: Lumiere Entertainment Inc.
- Publisher: Smilegate
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $18.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $296 to $444 per month (mid $370)
- Opportunity score: $611/month at x1.65 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 2.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $11.7k
- Review sentiment: 81% positive across 86 reviews (66 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 18 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 20 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $672 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $585 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $529 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $370 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (19 months)

8, 8, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 1, 1, 8, 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 5 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 19 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$1.3k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$8.9k to $17.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $4.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- brazilian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 46%
- koreana: 16%
- russian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 5%
- schinese: 25%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3012130
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.