# Lilia: The Fallen Flower in the Prison City

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3041820
- Developer: Acerola
- Publisher: Kagura Games
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Casual · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $313 to $469 per month (mid $391)
- Opportunity score: $626/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 3.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $22.7k
- Review sentiment: 80% positive across 141 reviews (106 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Studio active elsewhere (7 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 16 months ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $710 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $618 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $559 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $391 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (13 months)

61, 11, 11, 5, 1, 3, 4, 7, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3

## Estimated acquisition range

$9.4k to $18.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $4.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- japanese: 4%
- schinese: 61%
- german: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 24%
- koreana: 5% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 11% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: koreana). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3041820
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.