# Kaya's Prophecy

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3051470
- Developer: Jérémie & Thibaut
- Publisher: Yogscast Games
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Casual · List price: $13.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $313 to $469 per month (mid $391)
- Opportunity score: $391/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 6.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $29.0k
- Review sentiment: 75% positive across 238 reviews (193 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 7 months ago
- Last build shipped 7 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $710 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $617 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $559 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $391 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (14 months)

101, 34, 5, 6, 11, 5, 7, 5, 6, 2, 1, 7, 2, 2

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 14 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$5.9k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 6%
- german: 1%
- english: 36%
- koreana: 3%
- russian: 3%
- spanish: 3%
- japanese: 2%
- schinese: 46%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3051470
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.