# Liar's Bar

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3097560
- Developer: Curve Animation
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Casual · List price: $6.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $14.1k to $21.2k per month (mid $17.7k)
- Opportunity score: $17.7k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.6M · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.2M
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 56142 reviews (48524 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 345.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Store page localized in only 4 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 4 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $32.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $27.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $25.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $17.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (22 months)

12376, 20417, 4056, 3013, 1018, 1280, 755, 475, 750, 1287, 571, 411, 744, 789, 772, 501, 340, 413, 383, 243, 259, 437

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 5 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 22 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$650.6k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 35%
- koreana: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 27%
- brazilian: 5% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 25% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 38% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: russian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3097560
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.