# Butterfly Dream

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3108990
- Developer: LiberFish
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Action · List price: $10.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $172 to $258 per month (mid $215)
- Opportunity score: $215/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 864 · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.2k
- Review sentiment: 61% positive across 54 reviews (27 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 5 months ago
- Last build shipped 5 months ago
- 50% of reviews come from key activations (excluded from revenue estimates)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 8 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $390 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $340 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $307 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $215 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (10 months)

10, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 7, 5, 1, 1

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 10 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$15 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x2.3 taken from this game's own sale history. Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3108990
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.