# Futamata Ren'ai: Two Times the Trouble

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3113990
- Developer: ASa Project
- Publisher: Kagura Games
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Indie · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.4k to $2.1k per month (mid $1.8k)
- Opportunity score: $2.9k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 8.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $58.3k
- Review sentiment: 89% positive across 341 reviews (272 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 10.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 13 months ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $3.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (13 months)

76, 56, 15, 21, 17, 15, 20, 9, 11, 9, 12, 12, 11

## Estimated acquisition range

$42.9k to $85.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $21.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 85%
- german: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 14%
- spanish: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2025 visual novel from ASa Project about messy love triangles and character-driven drama in college, published by Kagura Games.

Futamata Ren'ai is a quiet performer with strong community sentiment (89% positive) and solid residual revenue of $1,787/mo despite zero promotional activity in 12 months and a tiny installed base (8,704 lifetime units). The title has won over skeptics of ASa Project's usual comedic tone by delivering genuine narrative depth. For a visual-novel specialist or Kagura Games, this represents an underexposed catalog asset ripe for localization expansion (Spanish and regional gaps evident) and targeted marketing to dormant visual-novel audiences.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): Visual novel category has niche appeal outside Asia; English-language adoption lags peer reviews (35 English vs 219 Simplified Chinese).
- Risk (other): Developer studio marked 'fading' with only 2 titles total; limited capacity for post-launch support or sequels.
- Risk (tech): No discount activity in 12 months and negative months_since_discount suggest platform has not trialed price elasticity; organic discovery may be capped.

What players are asking for:
- More routes and side-character content (already present, but demand signals strong attachment)
- Clearer communication on story tone upfront (to set expectations vs. studio's comedy reputation)
- Localization into Spanish and other regional languages (gap_loc_pct and top_lang signal unmet demand)

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit full localization roadmap: Spanish translation exists but is not live; prioritize regional launch in Iberian and LATAM markets where Simplified Chinese penetration signals untapped demand.
2. Test paid user-acquisition campaigns (Discord, Reddit, Itch communities) targeting visual-novel enthusiasts aged 18-35; zero discount history means no baseline on price sensitivity or traffic response.
3. Engage ASa Project and Kagura on post-launch roadmap: confirm dev capacity for quality-of-life patches, optional story content, or limited sequel within 12-18 months to sustain momentum and justify catalog acquisition.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3113990
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.