# eden*

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 315810
- Developer: minori
- Publisher: MangaGamer
- Released: 2015 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.8k to $4.2k per month (mid $3.5k)
- Opportunity score: $5.2k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 264.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.1M
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 5225 reviews (4069 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 32.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 3 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (4 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 3.3 years ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.6 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $6.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $5.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.5k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

48, 42, 92, 46, 77, 55, 71, 56, 27, 36, 29, 52, 36, 38, 44, 54, 59, 33, 29, 33, 21, 19, 49, 44

## Estimated acquisition range

$83.8k to $167.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $41.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2015 visual novel from minori about love and loss across parallel timelines, published by MangaGamer.

eden* has maintained steady residual revenue ($3.5k/mo mid-case) across nine years with minimal marketing investment, driven by a devoted community that continues to discover and replay it. The 97% positive score and high elasticity (1.61) suggest pricing power and untapped upside in seasonal sales, regional expansion, and bundling. Best fit for a publisher seeking low-risk catalog depth or a studio licensing the IP for adaptation; acquisition of the game alone carries negligible upside given minori's continued operation and MangaGamer's stewardship.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Visual novel genre has contracted since 2015; audience skews niche and highly specific in taste, limiting mainstream appeal or porting ROI.
- Risk (other): Very limited review data (2 sample reviews) prevents confident assessment of player sentiment on gameplay mechanics, pacing, or narrative satisfaction.

Suggested first moves:
1. Pull full review corpus from Steam (5,225 total) to identify recurring wishes: console port, translation into other languages, or sequel interest.
2. Analyze velocity curve (24-month rolling sales): spike in month 3 and month 9 may correlate with discounts or external events; model seasonal lift potential under new promotional calendar.
3. Assess minori's IP licensing appetite and MangaGamer's distribution capacity in Asia-Pacific and console markets before considering acquisition or revival play.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/315810
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.