# Insider Trading

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3166810
- Developer: Naiive
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $12.89
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $8.7k to $13.0k per month (mid $10.8k)
- Opportunity score: $10.8k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 19.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $82.0k
- Review sentiment: 80% positive across 634 reviews (593 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 100.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $19.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $17.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $15.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $10.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (6 months)

392, 105, 40, 29, 14, 21

## Markets by review language

- german: 1%
- english: 64%
- koreana: 9%
- brazilian: 0%
- russian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 1%
- japanese: 5%
- schinese: 14%
- french: 2%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3166810
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.