# Locked and Wagered: A Girlfriend at Stake

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

**Measured on 2026-08-30 07:03 UTC.** The whole Steam catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move a lot between passes.

- Steam appid: 3192280
- Developer: NTR教団 
- Publisher: Mango Party
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $6.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.1k to $1.6k per month (mid $1.3k)
- Opportunity score: $1.3k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $2.6k
- Review sentiment: 69% positive across 35 reviews (28 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 22.4 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.3k |

## Markets by review language

- english: 25%
- koreana: 15%
- schinese: 55%
- brazilian: 5% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier, 40-75x by year. Cohorts from 2020 on are calibrated against 182 sales milestones announced by developers; older ones follow the published Boxleiter tables. Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3192280
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when you publish or quote these estimates.