# Lost But Found

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3204250
- Developer: Rogue Duck Interactive
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Casual · List price: $6.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.1k to $3.1k per month (mid $2.6k)
- Opportunity score: $2.6k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 73.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $149.1k
- Review sentiment: 73% positive across 2566 reviews (2281 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 50.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 4 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (10 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 1 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.7k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.6k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (21 months)

600, 378, 114, 81, 144, 73, 41, 214, 78, 49, 89, 49, 66, 65, 34, 67, 51, 40, 32, 86, 27

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 21 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$868 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 3%
- english: 55%
- japanese: 2%
- schinese: 24%
- brazilian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 4%
- russian: 5%
- spanish: 2%
- french: 3%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3204250
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.