# The Ethereal Dream

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3209620
- Developer: 鸭子与葱制作组
- Publisher: NVLMaker
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $603 to $905 per month (mid $754)
- Opportunity score: $1.0k/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 8.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $56.4k
- Review sentiment: 77% positive across 290 reviews (263 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 4.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 20 months
- Last build shipped 11 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $754 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (17 months)

153, 33, 25, 7, 4, 13, 7, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 4, 4, 8, 4, 2

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 9 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 17 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$15.1k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$18.1k to $36.2k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $9.0k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 99%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3209620
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.