# 魔女黏糊笔记

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3265880
- Developer: 墨元素
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Strategy · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $185 to $277 per month (mid $231)
- Opportunity score: $381/month at x1.65 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 8.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $26.0k
- Review sentiment: 81% positive across 289 reviews (278 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 20 months
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 20 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $420 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $365 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $330 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $231 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (20 months)

192, 22, 19, 9, 2, 2, 4, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4, 3

## Estimated acquisition range

$5.5k to $11.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $2.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 5%
- schinese: 95%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3265880
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.