# The Butterfly Collector

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3384350
- Developer: Wicky Yu
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $0.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $139 to $209 per month (mid $174)
- Opportunity score: $235/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 29.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $9.8k
- Review sentiment: 88% positive across 952 reviews (927 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 21.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 13 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 13 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $316 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $275 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $249 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $174 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (18 months)

96, 62, 24, 250, 133, 43, 35, 62, 25, 30, 44, 37, 12, 37, 16, 18, 24, 19

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 18 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$705 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3384350
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.