# 卜卦 / Divination

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3408480
- Developer: Honglizi
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Casual · List price: $0.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $25 to $38 per month (mid $32)
- Opportunity score: $32/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $382
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 40 reviews (36 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 4 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $58 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $50 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $45 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $32 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (8 months)

6, 2, 2, 2, 11, 4, 2, 2

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3408480
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.