# Dice A Million

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3430340
- Developer: countlessnights
- Publisher: 2 Left Thumbs
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Indie · List price: $12.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $15.0k to $22.4k per month (mid $18.7k)
- Opportunity score: $18.7k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 32.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $143.3k
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 1085 reviews (1028 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 171.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 3 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 3 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $33.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $29.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $26.7k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $18.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (6 months)

351, 368, 141, 84, 40, 46

## Markets by review language

- french: 2%
- english: 64%
- japanese: 1%
- german: 7%
- koreana: 0%
- russian: 13%
- spanish: 4%
- schinese: 3%
- brazilian: 5%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3430340
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.