# Black Fairy Tale

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3437060
- Developer: 套鹿工作室
- Publisher: 寻鹿计划
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Casual · List price: $1.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $169 to $254 per month (mid $211)
- Opportunity score: $349/month at x1.65 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $833
- Review sentiment: 88% positive across 41 reviews (39 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 12.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 18 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 18 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $384 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $334 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $302 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $211 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (3 months)

33, 3, 2

## Estimated acquisition range

$5.1k to $10.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $2.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 19%
- koreana: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 69%

Localization gap: 11% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: koreana). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3437060
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.