# Tsuki ni Yorisou Otome no Sahou 2

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3446150
- Developer: Navel
- Publisher: HIKARI FIELD
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $39.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.7k to $2.5k per month (mid $2.1k)
- Opportunity score: $2.9k/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 8.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $119.3k
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 556 reviews (278 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 6.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 16 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 12 months ago
- 50% of reviews come from key activations (excluded from revenue estimates)
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $3.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (15 months)

122, 36, 24, 17, 11, 11, 26, 7, 6, 13, 6, 7, 3, 4, 5

## Estimated acquisition range

$51.0k to $101.9k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $25.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 98%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Tsuki ni Yorisou Otome no Sahou 2 is a Japanese visual novel romance sequel set in an aristocratic academy, focusing on the next generation of characters.

This title occupies a quiet niche in the visual novel market with 97% positive reviews and steady residual revenue of $2.1K/mo, but faces structural headwinds: zero promotional activity in 12 months, a developer in apparent fade mode, and heavy dependence on Chinese-language players (249 of 256 non-English reviews). For a publisher with existing VN distribution or localization capability in Asia, the IP represents a safe catalog addition; for a studio seeking revival, the cost of rekindling developer momentum likely outweighs the modest monthly return.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): Zero discount campaigns in 12 months despite $40 price point suggests either deliberate positioning or publisher indifference; elasticity of -1 indicates inelastic demand but risks pricing out new players.
- Risk (other): Developer (Navel) flagged as 'fading' with only 3 total titles and last public communication 15.6 months ago; future content or technical support uncertain.
- Risk (other): Sequel dependency on first game's legacy; 97% positive rating may reflect dedicated series fans rather than broader market appeal, limiting expansion beyond existing base.

What players are asking for:
- Clarity on whether title represents final installment or opens door for Tsuki 3
- Additional language support beyond Japanese and Simplified Chinese
- Developer roadmap or post-launch support communication

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit Navel's IP portfolio and legal standing; confirm publishing rights holder is actually HIKARI FIELD and assess likelihood of developer re-engagement for any future updates.
2. Analyze the 249 Simplified Chinese reviews in detail to confirm whether organic discovery or targeted regional marketing drove that audience, and whether similar tactics could unlock other Asian markets (Korean, Vietnamese, Thai).
3. Model the impact of a modest localisation refresh (improved English copy, accessibility features) and a single coordinated discount campaign (15-25%) timed to seasonal store events; if elasticity holds true, revenue may be inelastic, but trial costs are low.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3446150
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.