# Sharks and Minnows

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3446200
- Developer: Collin
- Publisher: Collin's Game Company
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Indie · List price: $7.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $447 to $670 per month (mid $558)
- Opportunity score: $558/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 10.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $28.0k
- Review sentiment: 92% positive across 363 reviews (327 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 8.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 5 months ago
- Last build shipped 4 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 5 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.0k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $882 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $798 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $558 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (16 months)

37, 92, 34, 34, 16, 14, 11, 20, 22, 6, 9, 12, 7, 5, 9, 8

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 16 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$3.1k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- brazilian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 2%
- koreana: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 1%
- french: 2%
- english: 79%
- spanish: 2%
- schinese: 7%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3446200
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.