# AFL 26

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3468640
- Developer: Big Ant Studios
- Publisher: Nacon
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Sports · List price: $59.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.9k to $2.8k per month (mid $2.3k)
- Opportunity score: $2.3k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 6.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $124.2k
- Review sentiment: 57% positive across 197 reviews (193 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 4.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (12 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.7k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (15 months)

126, 11, 9, 9, 6, 3, 1, 0, 3, 4, 2, 8, 4, 7, 3

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 8 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 15 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$9.1k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 100% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 100% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: english). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3468640
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.