# Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3527810
- Developer: Headless Chicken Games
- Publisher: GameMill Entertainment
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $39.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.2k to $1.8k per month (mid $1.5k)
- Opportunity score: $2.4k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $16.7k
- Review sentiment: 74% positive across 46 reviews (39 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 4.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Last build shipped 7 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.5k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (8 months)

6, 6, 5, 14, 5, 1, 1, 1

## Estimated acquisition range

$36.2k to $72.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $18.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 94%
- spanish: 3%
- brazilian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3527810
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.