# Fortune Fragments

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

**Measured on 2026-08-29 14:57 UTC.** The whole Steam catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move a lot between passes.

- Steam appid: 3601160
- Developer: Runoi Games
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $15.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $963 to $1.4k per month (mid $1.2k)
- Opportunity score: $1.6k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $5.4k
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 32 reviews (25 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 9.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 2 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.7k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (2 months)

16, 7

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 2 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$1.5k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$28.8k to $57.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $14.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- russian: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 89%

Localization gap: 11% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: russian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier, 40-75x by year. Cohorts from 2020 on are calibrated against 182 sales milestones announced by developers; older ones follow the published Boxleiter tables. Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3601160
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when you publish or quote these estimates.