# THE LAST TRAIN: Baquedano

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3676960
- Developer: Matías Avilés
- Publisher: Plastic Frog
- Released: 2025 · Genre:  · List price: $7.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $268 to $402 per month (mid $335)
- Opportunity score: $335/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 9.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $25.9k
- Review sentiment: 92% positive across 402 reviews (302 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 5.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x4.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $608 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $529 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $479 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $335 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (15 months)

139, 25, 18, 5, 11, 35, 36, 6, 7, 7, 5, 3, 2, 2, 11

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 15 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$5.7k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x4.3 taken from this game's own sale history. Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- koreana: 2%
- russian: 8%
- spanish: 26%
- japanese: 4%
- schinese: 3%
- brazilian: 36%
- german: 2%
- english: 20%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3676960
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.