# 初遇时

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3772010
- Developer: 悠悠球工作室
- Released: 2025 · Genre: RPG · List price: $3.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $85 to $127 per month (mid $106)
- Opportunity score: $106/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 2.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.7k
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 146 reviews (87 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 6 months ago
- Last build shipped 12 months ago
- 40% of reviews come from key activations (excluded from revenue estimates)
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $192 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $167 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $151 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $106 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (11 months)

46, 11, 4, 7, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 2, 2

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 3 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 11 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$234 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3772010
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.