# Logic Bombs

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3816700
- Developer: Matthewmatosis
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Indie · List price: $4.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $351 to $527 per month (mid $439)
- Opportunity score: $439/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 17.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $29.3k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 595 reviews (548 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 10.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 10 months ago
- Last build shipped 10 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $797 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $694 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $628 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $439 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (13 months)

264, 81, 33, 21, 40, 30, 27, 9, 12, 6, 7, 18, 11

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 7 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 13 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$8.4k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 89%
- japanese: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 11% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: schinese). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3816700
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.