# Hot Lava

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 382560
- Developer: Klei Entertainment
- Released: 2019 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.3k to $3.4k per month (mid $2.8k)
- Opportunity score: $4.6k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 212.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $913.8k
- Review sentiment: 93% positive across 6153 reviews (5317 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 26.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 2.9 years
- Studio active elsewhere (11 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 9 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 8 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.9 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

21, 125, 31, 25, 35, 47, 21, 36, 22, 33, 59, 46, 59, 35, 29, 22, 50, 22, 35, 32, 25, 22, 24, 21

## Estimated acquisition range

$68.3k to $136.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $34.2k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A parkour-physics platformer where players navigate furniture-filled obstacle courses while avoiding the floor, built on the childhood game "the floor is lava."

Hot Lava maintains strong community sentiment (93% positive, 26.5 reviews/mo) and healthy residual revenue ($2,847/mo mid-estimate) five years post-launch, driven by accessible gameplay, creative level design, and nostalgic appeal. The game is quiet but not declining; it's a stable catalog performer ideal for a publisher seeking low-risk, high-margin titles or a studio evaluating evergreen IP for modest revival investment (cosmetics, seasonal events, cross-promotion with Klei's larger titles).

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): Parkour genre is crowded; Hot Lava's modest mainstream profile (grade B, not tracked on ITAD top charts) suggests ceiling on organic discovery.
- Risk (other): Player reviews flag animal-harm mechanics (pug kicking in lobby) as a potential friction point for some audiences; moderation or removal could alienate a segment.
- Risk (tech): Nine months since last engine/build update; aging physics pipeline may limit porting to newer platforms (console, mobile) without substantial refactor.

What players are asking for:
- More cosmetic customization and character skins (Russian cosmonauts, theme-locked outfits mentioned)
- Expanded level variety and creative level-editor tooling to sustain novelty
- Cross-play or robust social/clan features to deepen retention

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit IP ownership and examine licensing opportunities for Hot Lava cosmetics (branded skins from film, TV, or other IP) to unlock short-term revenue lift without major dev cost.
2. Evaluate modest content drop (seasonal events, 5-10 new levels, cosmetic tier) timed to Steam sale cycle to stimulate review velocity and trigger algorithmic re-surfacing.
3. Assess console port feasibility (Switch, PS5) given current physics engine state; if viable, target younger/family audiences where 'floor is lava' nostalgia is freshest.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/382560
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.