# Execute

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3829620
- Developer: Payne Robinson
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Indie · List price: $5.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.0k to $3.1k per month (mid $2.6k)
- Opportunity score: $2.6k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 20.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $42.0k
- Review sentiment: 91% positive across 673 reviews (653 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 50.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 5 months ago
- Last build shipped 5 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.4 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.6k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (8 months)

246, 93, 109, 59, 35, 23, 40, 39

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 8 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$868 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x2.4 taken from this game's own sale history. Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 3%
- koreana: 5%
- russian: 2%
- spanish: 1%
- japanese: 3%
- schinese: 4%
- brazilian: 3%
- french: 3%
- english: 75%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3829620
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.