# Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3834880
- Developer: 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $10.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $7.8k to $11.7k per month (mid $9.8k)
- Opportunity score: $14.7k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 13.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $50.6k
- Review sentiment: 72% positive across 491 reviews (429 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 106.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Store page localized in only 4 language(s)
- No Steam discount in 4.0 years (deepest tracked: -0%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $17.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $15.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $14.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $9.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (4 months)

222, 112, 26, 65

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 4 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$4.2k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$234.9k to $469.9k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $117.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 91%
- english: 8%
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A wuxia-themed adventure game from Chinese indie studio Ninth Leaf, launched in early 2026 with strong narrative ambition but balance issues in combat encounters.

Tales of Justice Academy shows early traction for an unknown developer: 13.7k lifetime units, 72% positive sentiment, and $9.8k/mo residual revenue on a $10.99 price point with zero promotional discount spend. The single negative review flagged unbalanced boss fights, suggesting post-launch tuning could unlock higher engagement. The studio is operating and actively shipping updates (last build 5 days ago). Revival or publishing partnership could be profitable for the right partner focused on underserved wuxia/Asian narrative audiences, especially given 71% of reviews are in Simplified Chinese.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): 98% of review volume is Simplified Chinese speakers; expansion outside that region may face discovery and localization headwinds despite 4 supported languages.
- Risk (tech): Combat balance issues reported by early players could signal design debt; unclear if dev has capacity or roadmap to address core gameplay loop concerns.
- Risk (other): Single-title studio with no prior shipping history; execution risk on post-launch content, live-ops, or platform expansion.

Suggested first moves:
1. Obtain full review sample in Simplified Chinese to understand what is driving the 72% positive score and identify feature requests from the core audience.
2. Request dev roadmap, player retention metrics, and churn data for the first 5 months; confirm whether combat tuning is planned or if this is a known design philosophy.
3. Model scenario in which a publishing partner funds localization for Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese markets (adjacencies to Chinese wuxia fandom) and runs regional marketing; compare to current $14.7k/mo opportunity upside.

Generated 2026-08-21 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3834880
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.