# Lost Letter

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3838740
- Developer: Candeia Studio
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Casual · List price: $5.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $94 to $141 per month (mid $117)
- Opportunity score: $117/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 896 · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.8k
- Review sentiment: 88% positive across 32 reviews (28 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 9 months ago
- Last build shipped 5 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 4 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.5 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $213 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $185 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $167 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $117 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (9 months)

12, 2, 2, 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 9 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$88 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x2.5 taken from this game's own sale history. Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3838740
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.