# Coincidences?

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3848750
- Developer: FogTime
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $3.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.2k to $3.2k per month (mid $2.7k)
- Opportunity score: $2.7k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 10.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $14.5k
- Review sentiment: 92% positive across 363 reviews (338 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 80.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 3 months ago
- Last build shipped 3 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.3k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (4 months)

94, 117, 53, 59

## Markets by review language

- english: 38%
- koreana: 12%
- russian: 21%
- spanish: 6%
- french: 3%
- german: 7%
- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 8%
- brazilian: 4%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3848750
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.