# VR Waifu - Ciel

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3850380
- Developer: Shiba Neko
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $849 to $1.3k per month (mid $1.1k)
- Opportunity score: $1.7k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 2.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $8.0k
- Review sentiment: 68% positive across 75 reviews (75 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 12.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Last build shipped 7 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.7k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (6 months)

39, 16, 6, 5, 8, 2

## Estimated acquisition range

$25.5k to $50.9k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $12.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- schinese: 9%
- brazilian: 1%
- french: 3%
- english: 36%
- koreana: 4%
- russian: 19%
- spanish: 1%
- japanese: 27%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3850380
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.