# Pencil Stories

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3873450
- Developer: Phantom Island
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $10.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $688 to $1.0k per month (mid $860)
- Opportunity score: $860/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 928 · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.4k
- Review sentiment: 100% positive across 33 reviews (29 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 9.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 4 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $860 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (3 months)

18, 5, 5

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 3 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$461 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 55%
- english: 45%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3873450
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.