# Origin Story - Season 1

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3942470
- Developer: JDOR
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Action · List price: $12.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $11.5k to $17.2k per month (mid $14.4k)
- Opportunity score: $23.0k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 4.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $18.0k
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 134 reviews (129 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 132.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Last build shipped 1 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $26.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $22.7k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $20.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $14.4k |

## Estimated acquisition range

$345.0k to $690.0k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $172.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- koreana: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 90%

Localization gap: 10% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: french). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Origin Story - Season 1 is an adult visual novel set in a superhero universe where the player-character discovers powers and navigates relationships across a diverse cast.

This title demonstrates exceptional community engagement (94% positive, 132 reviews/month despite zero discounting) and solid residual performance at $14.4k/mo mid-estimate. The core strength is narrative and character work, not branching mechanics, which positions it as a serialized story asset rather than a replayability engine. For a publisher or platform holder, this represents a quiet earner with established Patreon-to-Steam pipeline proof and demonstrated appeal to a dedicated adult-games demographic; for a potential acquirer, the risk is modest team size (one-title studio) and unproven Season 2 delivery velocity.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (other): Single-title studio with zero developer posts tracked; Season 2 timeline and commitment unknown, creating visibility risk for future catalog value.
- Risk (market): Adult VN segment remains subject to platform content policy shifts; Steam's historical moderation stance on this category carries long-term uncertainty.
- Risk (other): Modest localization (1 language at launch, 10% gap to French); expansion friction may limit geographic upside beyond Anglophone core.

What players are asking for:
- Season 2 release timeline and roadmap clarity
- More meaningful player choice branches within story (vs. linear narrative with dialogue flavor)
- Expanded use of protagonist powers in gameplay/scene variation
- Quality-of-life: replay skip improvements and achievement accessibility

Suggested first moves:
1. Secure developer commitment letter on Season 2 scope, budget and delivery window before any deal evaluation; confirm Patreon subscriber base and churn data as leading indicator of post-Steam momentum.
2. Audit Steam achievement distribution and player save data to quantify replay rates and branching path engagement; use retention curves to project residual decline post-Season 1 and pricing elasticity at higher price points.
3. Evaluate French localization ROI given 5-review French cohort and 10% loc_gap; test subtitle vs. full VO approach for adjacent European markets (German, Russian communities present but small) as low-cost expansion.

Generated 2026-08-21 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3942470
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.