# Late Ming: Reborn in Flames

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3948550
- Developer: AladdinBatu
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Casual · List price: $4.00
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $827 to $1.2k per month (mid $1.0k)
- Opportunity score: $1.6k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 15.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $20.3k
- Review sentiment: 56% positive across 475 reviews (473 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 30.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Store page localized in only 4 language(s)
- No Steam discount in 4.0 years (deepest tracked: -0%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (9 months)

115, 82, 61, 45, 20, 31, 35, 21, 33

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 6 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 9 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$5.6k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$24.8k to $49.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $12.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 3%
- russian: 1%
- japanese: 0%
- schinese: 95% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 96% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: schinese). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3948550
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.