# Tiny Bakery

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 3951340
- Developer: Bubbly Games
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $502 to $754 per month (mid $628)
- Opportunity score: $628/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.6k
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 41 reviews (34 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 7.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 3 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $992 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $898 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $628 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (4 months)

12, 8, 7, 3

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 4 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$419 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 15%
- english: 79%
- koreana: 3%
- russian: 3%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/3951340
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.