# Rebooted Fate

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 4164580
- Developer: Jilin miaomiao
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $34.3k to $51.4k per month (mid $42.8k)
- Opportunity score: $64.2k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 63.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $316.7k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 2047 reviews (1969 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 340.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- No Steam discount in 4.0 years (deepest tracked: -0%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $77.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $67.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $61.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $42.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (6 months)

1430, 568, 18, 7, 12, 10

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 3 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 6 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$37.1k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$1.0M to $2.1M (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $513.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- schinese: 98%
- brazilian: 0%
- french: 0%
- german: 0%
- english: 1%
- koreana: 0%
- russian: 0%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4164580
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.