# Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 4204940
- Developer: ASa Project
- Publisher: Kagami Games
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.7k to $4.1k per month (mid $3.4k)
- Opportunity score: $5.5k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 2.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $22.8k
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 208 reviews (71 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 13.6 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 5 months ago
- 66% of reviews come from key activations (excluded from revenue estimates)
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 4 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $6.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (5 months)

27, 25, 5, 6, 5

## Estimated acquisition range

$82.1k to $164.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $41.0k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- japanese: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 64%
- english: 28%
- russian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A visual novel romance adventure where a protagonist reconnects with childhood friends after losing his home, developed by ASa Project and published by Kagami Games.

Karigurashi Ren'ai sits in a narrow niche: a 2026 visual novel with strong community sentiment (96.6% positive, 13.6 reviews/month) and meaningful residual revenue ($3.4k/mo mid-case), yet minimal developer visibility post-launch. The title shows signs of healthy organic interest in East Asia (43 Simplified Chinese reviews) and selective Western adoption, but sits dormant in terms of post-release support. For a publisher or IP holder seeking to inherit a curated visual-novel catalog with established player goodwill and modest but stable revenue, this represents a low-risk addition; for a revival play, localization gaps (7.5% in Russian) and the need for developer engagement present friction.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (tech): No developer blog or forum activity post-launch (-1 months since last dev post) suggests minimal ongoing support; engine and platform dependencies unknown.
- Risk (market): Visual-novel market remains niche and dependent on sustained word-of-mouth; elasticity of -1 indicates price sensitivity, and current 26% discount may reflect steady-state promotional reliance rather than launch momentum.
- Risk (other): Character reception is mixed (praise for banter and art vs. explicit criticism of one route's execution), suggesting potential franchise fatigue risk if sequel or spin-off is considered.

What players are asking for:
- More routes or character depth (one review cites a disliked character arc)
- Clearer narrative stakes or emotional payoff beyond 'rebuilding a house'
- Potential expanded localization to Russian-speaking regions

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit the developer's IP contract and post-launch support obligations to determine whether revival (patches, translations, DLC) is feasible under current terms or requires renegotiation.
2. Map player feedback on the disputed character route against retention and refund data to assess whether narrative polish or DLC could unlock higher opportunity_usd.
3. Evaluate Russian and additional Asian-language localization ROI given review volume in Simplified Chinese (43) and loc_gap in Russian (7.5%), as these regions show organic interest.

Generated 2026-08-21 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4204940
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.