# Elise and the Spellbinding Marionette

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 4237200
- Developer: wagasibiyori
- Publisher: Kagura Games
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $12.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $653 to $980 per month (mid $817)
- Opportunity score: $1.3k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 992 · Est. lifetime net revenue: $4.3k
- Review sentiment: 96% positive across 73 reviews (31 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 7.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Last build shipped 4 months ago
- 58% of reviews come from key activations (excluded from revenue estimates)
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 3 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.5k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.3k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $817 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (4 months)

13, 12, 0, 5

## Estimated acquisition range

$19.6k to $39.2k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $9.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- schinese: 52%
- brazilian: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 28%
- russian: 8% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 20% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: russian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4237200
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.