# ペンギンウォーズ

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 4286410
- Developer: しゃちクマず
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $5.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $609 to $914 per month (mid $762)
- Opportunity score: $1.2k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 3.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $6.6k
- Review sentiment: 98% positive across 104 reviews (102 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 15.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Last build shipped 1 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $762 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (6 months)

27, 23, 13, 17, 5, 6

## Estimated acquisition range

$18.3k to $36.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $9.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- koreana: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 87%
- schinese: 7% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 13% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: schinese). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4286410
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.