# Crimson Moon

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

**Measured on 2026-09-02 19:21 UTC.** The whole Steam catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move a lot between passes.

- Steam appid: 4317690
- Developer: ProbablyMonsters
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $210.0k to $315.0k per month (mid $262.0k)
- Opportunity score: $262.0k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 64.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $432.0k
- Review sentiment: 59% positive across 1720 reviews (1610 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 1565.1 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $475.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $413.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $374.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $262.0k |

## Markets by review language

- french: 6%
- english: 77%
- brazilian: 3%
- german: 6%
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier, 40-75x by year. Cohorts from 2020 on are calibrated against 182 sales milestones announced by developers; older ones follow the published Boxleiter tables. Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4317690
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when you publish or quote these estimates.