# Smoke & Lottery Simulator

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 4488930
- Developer: EdenStudio
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Indie · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $569 to $854 per month (mid $712)
- Opportunity score: $712/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $4.4k
- Review sentiment: 84% positive across 51 reviews (41 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 8.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 3 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $712 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (4 months)

16, 11, 5, 2

## Markets by review language

- english: 24%
- spanish: 3%
- french: 30%
- german: 43%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4488930
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.