# How To Grow a Black Hole

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 4562150
- Developer: Desolation Digital
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $3.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $7.3k to $11.0k per month (mid $9.2k)
- Opportunity score: $9.2k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 17.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $23.6k
- Review sentiment: 68% positive across 570 reviews (551 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 274.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Last discounted 2 months ago, 1 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $16.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $14.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $13.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $9.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (2 months)

455, 94

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 2 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$9.2k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 4%
- english: 67%
- koreana: 2%
- schinese: 5%
- french: 4%
- russian: 13%
- spanish: 3%
- japanese: 1%
- brazilian: 2%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4562150
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.