# Math-Havoc

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

**Measured on 2026-09-01 18:56 UTC.** The whole Steam catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move a lot between passes.

- Steam appid: 4607690
- Developer: João Lemes
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Casual · List price: $1.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $508 to $762 per month (mid $635)
- Opportunity score: $1.0k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.0k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 41 reviews (39 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 38.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Last build shipped 2 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $908 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $635 |

## Estimated acquisition range

$15.2k to $30.5k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $7.6k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 24%
- schinese: 3%
- brazilian: 71%
- french: 3%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier, 40-75x by year. Cohorts from 2020 on are calibrated against 182 sales milestones announced by developers; older ones follow the published Boxleiter tables. Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/4607690
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when you publish or quote these estimates.