# Manifold Garden

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 473950
- Developer: William Chyr Studio
- Released: 2020 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $6.3k to $9.5k per month (mid $7.9k)
- Opportunity score: $16.5k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 229.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $987.4k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 8498 reviews (7660 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 73.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.4 years
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 1 tracked titles
- Last build shipped 4.0 years ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.2 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $14.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $12.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $11.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $7.9k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

72, 87, 83, 83, 116, 159, 79, 119, 69, 62, 96, 111, 67, 65, 77, 94, 89, 89, 54, 80, 62, 72, 84, 88

## Estimated acquisition range

$189.1k to $378.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $94.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A single-developer puzzle-adventure with gravity manipulation and non-Euclidean space, released in 2020, earning steady residual revenue with exceptional critical sentiment.

Manifold Garden sits in a rare position: 95% positive reviews, $7.9k/mo residual revenue, and a complete catalog from a solo developer, yet remains outside mainstream awareness four years post-launch. The IP is wholly owned by William Chyr, making full acquisition or publishing rights straightforward compared to licensed alternatives. The core mechanic (gravity-flipping in looping worlds) is distinctive enough for licensed adaptations, expanded editions, or platform ports; current velocity and 9.9% key-share suggest distribution upside remains unexploited.

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Risk (other): Developer reportedly inactive (40 months since last public post); full studio acquisition or rights clearance would be necessary to expand or maintain the title.
- Risk (market): Game is fundamentally short (4-8 hours per reviews), limiting replay incentive and limiting the addressable market to puzzle enthusiasts; content expansion or sequel would be required to broaden appeal.
- Risk (tech): Motion sickness complaints suggest physics-intensive mechanics may alienate some players; console and mobile ports would need careful motion-control adaptation.

What players are asking for:
- More levels or community-level editing tools to extend playtime
- Console ports or mobile versions for accessibility
- Sequel or spiritual follow-up from the developer
- Clarification on whether hidden content or optional challenges exist

Suggested first moves:
1. Verify IP ownership and developer status via direct contact with William Chyr; confirm whether studio is dormant or available for acquisition or licensing deal.
2. Audit lifetime revenue (reported $987k net) and current player cohort (73 reviews/mo suggests active tail); model port economics to consoles and mobile, where gravity-puzzle mechanics may find larger audiences.
3. Evaluate fan-modding and level-editor precedent (Portal, Baba Is You) to estimate content-creation upside; rapid DLC or community-tools release could stabilize and grow monthly revenue from current $7.9k baseline.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/473950
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.