# Braid, Anniversary Edition

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 499180
- Developer: Thekla, Inc.
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.8k to $5.7k per month (mid $4.8k)
- Opportunity score: $6.2k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 55.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $324.1k
- Review sentiment: 92% positive across 1851 reviews (1733 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 32.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 19 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.9 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $8.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $7.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $6.8k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $4.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

77, 47, 48, 194, 108, 62, 34, 47, 36, 19, 35, 35, 21, 27, 27, 33, 37, 47, 27, 44, 23, 22, 41, 39

## Estimated acquisition range

$114.5k to $229.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $57.3k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Braid is a critically acclaimed puzzle-platformer built around time-manipulation mechanics and philosophical narrative, released in 2024 as an Anniversary Edition of the 2008 indie classic.

The Anniversary Edition sustains $4.8k/mo residual revenue on modest promotion (11 discounts in 12 months, currently 75% off), indicating steady long-tail appeal among puzzle enthusiasts despite mixed sentiment on difficulty and scope. The 92% positive rate and 32 reviews/month suggest a durable niche following. For a buyer, the IP and engine represent a proven design template with low maintenance overhead; for a publisher, the franchise has untapped localization and console-port upside. However, the original creator Jonathan Blow's strong creative control and the game's reputation for inaccessibility limit mainstream scaling.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Player reviews consistently cite the game as 'pretentious' and 'small in scope'; full-price conversion is weak (reviewers advise sale purchases), suggesting limited growth at $19.99 baseline.
- Risk (other): Creator Jonathan Blow remains actively involved (last dev post 2 months ago); any acquisition or major derivative work would require his collaboration or rights negotiation.
- Risk (other): Difficulty curve and hidden mechanics alienate casual players despite critical acclaim; hard-core puzzle audience is finite and may already own the 2008 original.

What players are asking for:
- More puzzles and longer campaign (reviews cite ~4h runtime as insufficient for full price)
- Better onboarding and clearer tutorial of time-manipulation mechanics before obscure late-game tests
- Forgiving platforming controls or difficulty mode for players with mixed puzzle/action tolerance
- Native console ports and mobile versions

Suggested first moves:
1. Analyze console and mobile port ROI: $4.8k/mo on Steam alone suggests meaningful opportunity on Nintendo Switch and PlayStation, where puzzle-platformers perform well; localization into Japanese, Korean, and Simplified Chinese could unlock Asia-Pacific growth given the game's high review language support (13 languages).
2. Conduct retention audit on the Anniversary Edition changes (visuals, audio, QoL): if the 2024 refresh drove the recent sales spike, identify which features (e.g., new accessibility options, rebalanced tutorials) convert buyers, then backport to other Thekla titles or license the framework to similar indie studios.
3. Model acquisition feasibility and Blow's involvement: Thekla is a 2-title studio in operating status; clarify whether Blow would retain creative control post-acquisition and whether he has bandwidth for a Braid 2 or spin-off before committing capital.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/499180
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.