# Unforeseen Incidents

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 501790
- Developer: Backwoods Entertainment
- Publisher: Application Systems Heidelberg
- Released: 2018 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $587 to $881 per month (mid $734)
- Opportunity score: $734/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 48.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $207.1k
- Review sentiment: 87% positive across 1069 reviews (964 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 6.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 5 months ago
- Last build shipped 7 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $734 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

11, 20, 10, 12, 9, 3, 4, 7, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6, 9, 7, 4, 7, 4, 7, 7, 10, 3, 4, 10

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/501790
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.